Two recent events have again drawn the attention of the media and the public to the world’s most challenging problem of how to feed its exponentially growing population. On October 16, the celebration of World Food Day – commemorating the 1945 founding of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) – raised public awareness and understanding of hunger issues and the need for access to nutritious food worldwide. A couple of weeks later on October 31, the earth reached the much dramatised figure of seven billion human inhabitants according to the UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, which is predicting an 8-billion population in 2025, 9 billions in 2045 and 10 billions in 2085. With nearly one billion people going hungry today, the task facing agriculture is huge. FAO estimates that the world’s agricultural production will have to grow 50% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. Potential increase of farming land is limited except in a few countries, for example in Africa in the Guinea belt extending from West Africa to Mozambique, where less than half the usable land is farmed. Unfortunately, that’s also where most of the ‘land grab’ deals have been taking place in the last three years, boosting food exports to rich countries and displacing local peasant populations. According to the World Bank, such deals have had a sizeable impact on increasing usable acreage and already account for 65 million hectares – an eighth of the bank’s estimate of total available land. Meanwhile, European agricultural productivity has increased by less than 1% in the past year and the recent Common Agricultural Policy proposal requiring farmers to leave 7% of their land fallow is bound to have an adverse effect on productivity. This is certainly not good news in view of the very high volatility of the world’s staple food prices experienced since 2006. The World Bank estimates that rising food costs in 2010-2011 pushed nearly 70 million people into extreme poverty.
Such price upswings, exacerbated by financial speculation, are a major threat to food security in poor countries and are in sharp contrast to the situation prevailing 40 years ago, when commodities markets were much more stable. In those days the relative overabundance of food was largely fueled by farm subsidies in Europe and USA whereas today’s global market is tight and stocks are historically low. Nowadays the EU relies on other countries for its food and feed supplies and utilises over 30 million hectares – the size of Germany – outside its borders to meet its own needs, resulting in what some academics have called a ‘virtual land grab’. World demand for staple foods is growing annually by 3-4% and consumer demand in emerging economies is increasing rapidly. To make matters even worse, the current growth in biofuel consumption is placing additional demands on the food system.
Science and technology will definitely have an important role to play in any serious attempt at reducing the food security gap. The huge potential of recombinant DNA technology and the promises of GM crops shown to boost yields by 6 to 30% will have to be realised in both industrialised and developing countries. Food science and technology can also be applied to limit the substantial post-harvest losses in the developing world. Europe must recognise its responsibility to provide more food not only for its own citizens but for people around the world. Western consumers need to change unsustainable (and unhealthy) dietary habits and shrink their agricultural footprint (9.5 hectares for the average American vs 2.7 hectares for the average human according to Californian NGO Global Footprint Network). And the world needs to tackle global warming more consistently than it has so far, as climate change is expected to be disastrous for crop yields, particularly in developing countries.